000
WTNT42 KNHC 032038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-kt winds
about 90 n mi west of the center of Tropical Depression Seven, and
based on this it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand.  Satellite
imagery indicates a gradual increase in organization, with a
well-defined low cloud swirl on the southeast edge of a growing area
of central convection, accompanied by a large outer band in the
northwestern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 265/6.  A deep-layer ridge over the
southern United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally
westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward
to northwestward motion for the remainder of its lifetime.  The new
forecast track now lies near the various consensus models and calls
for the center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in just
over 24 h.  Based mainly on the current position and motion, the
new track is a little south of the previous track, and at this time
it appears unlikely that watches or warnings will be needed for the
lower Texas coast.

An environment of moderate easterly shear appears conducive for
gradual strengthening before the cyclone moves into Mexico, and the
new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near
landfall.  After landfall, Fernand should weaken, with the system
dissipating completely over northeastern Mexico by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 23.4N  95.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 23.4N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 24.2N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 25.0N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven