000
WTNT42 KNHC 311443
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016

The satellite appearance of Gaston has degraded somewhat during the
past few hours, with a slightly cooler eye noted.  A blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates suggest an initial wind speed of 100 kt for
this advisory.  Only a slow weakening is anticipated over the next
couple of days while the hurricane moves over gradually cooling
waters in moderate shear conditions.  Almost all of the guidance
show Gaston near hurricane strength in a couple of days as it
approaches the Azores.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, and best fits the model consensus.

Gaston has begun to move faster toward the east-northeast, now at
about 13 kt.  The hurricane should accelerate in that general
direction over the next couple of days as it moves within the
mid-latitude westerlies.  Most of the models have this system in
the vicinity of the Azores in about 2 days, and the official
forecast will continue to show this solution.

A hurricane or tropical storm watch will likely be issued for the
central or western Azores this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 34.0N  48.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 35.2N  46.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 36.9N  41.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 38.0N  36.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 38.8N  32.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 40.0N  24.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 43.0N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake