000
WTNT42 KNHC 042030
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016

Bonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, and
the compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.
An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in the
southeast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensity
is held at that value.  Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold waters
should prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, and
Bonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight.  Most of
the models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday.

The depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, at
about 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies.  A general eastward
to east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates.  The official track
forecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, to
account for the more southerly initial position and motion, and
lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 35.0N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 34.5N  62.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 34.0N  59.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 33.3N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi