000
WTNT42 KNHC 032032
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016

Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has
increased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB is now 35 kt.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass
near 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast
of the center.  Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as
a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/11.  Bonnie should move generally
eastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the
south and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast.  The model
guidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory,
and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well.

The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie
will be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in
about 12 hours.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening
through the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a
post-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours.  The low should
subsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 35.9N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 35.9N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 35.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 35.1N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 34.6N  57.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven