000
WTNT42 KNHC 110239
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015

The overall structure of Kate has not changed much since this
afternoon, however, the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled
within the past few hours. NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data from
around 0000 UTC showed that the center remains embedded within the
central dense overcast, but there was significant tilt between the
700 mb and surface centers.  Although flight-level winds and 0000
UTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt,
dropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not
efficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity
remains 60 kt.

There is only a short window of opportunity for Kate to reach
hurricane strength, before it moves over cooler waters and the
shear increases to more than 30 kt by Wednesday morning.  Kate is
expected to remain a powerful cyclone as it becomes extratropical
in about 36 hours.  Later in the period, Kate is forecast to
gradually weaken as it loses baroclinic forcing.  The extratropical
low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in
4 to 5 days.

The initial motion estimate is 055/30 kt.  Kate should continue
moving rapidly northeastward or east-northeastward during the next
24 hours, then temporarily slow down during the 36 to 48 hour time
period while it interacts with an upper-level trough.  After that
time, the extratropical low should again accelerate northeastward
over the north-central Atlantic.  The model guidance is in very good
agreement on this scenario, and the updated track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 33.9N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 36.0N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 38.9N  55.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 41.6N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0000Z 42.6N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z 44.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0000Z 50.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown