000
WTNT42 KNHC 101646
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Corrected forecast motion at the end of the period to northeastward
in third paragraph.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has
continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based
on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the
latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.
Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,
with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,
consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over
the cyclone.

Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of
the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during
the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures
aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the
guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows
Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to
over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours
and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The
official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5
days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of
035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward
speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a
faster northeastward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track
through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 30.2N  74.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 35.3N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 37.8N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 40.5N  51.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  13/1200Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 47.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan