000
WTNT42 KNHC 100236
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening.  The
center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature
with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle.
Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had
strengthened to about 45 kt.  Since the plane departed the storm,
the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the
intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to
remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm
water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional
strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a
hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong
and the cyclone moves over cooler waters.  Kate is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected
to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system
over the north Atlantic by day 3.

Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered
northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the
east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate
northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes
embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies.  The updated track is
similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 27.2N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 29.5N  75.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 35.3N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 38.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown