000
WTNT42 KNHC 092032
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central
dense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of
the center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective
inner core was forming.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt for
this advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the
system could be a little stronger.  The NOAA hurricane hunters will
be investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment
of its intensity.

The tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and
over warm waters.  These favorable conditions should allow the storm
to strengthen during the next day or so.  After that time, an
increase in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should
cause the strengthening trend to end.  Kate is expected to be
absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.  The
new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one,
and remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope.

Kate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the
Bahamas.  The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  A
northward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the
western periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north
side of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 25.5N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 27.5N  76.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 30.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 33.6N  69.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 36.8N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart