000
WTNT42 KNHC 090839
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Deep convection has increased to the north and east of the
depression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates
now T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
Based on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt
depression.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning
and should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's
intensity.  Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support
some strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before
it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western
Atlantic by 72 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS
and LGEM models.

The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and
toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate
is 295/13 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to move around the western
periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western
Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later
today and north-northwest by tonight.  While the dynamical models
all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of
sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the
simpler BAM trajectory models.  Therefore, the official forecast has
been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the
first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions
observed in the dynamical model fields.  After 36 hours, the BAM and
dynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official
forecast is closer to the consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 23.6N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.7N  75.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 27.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 30.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 33.4N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan