000
WTNT42 KNHC 090837
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

Grace is only producing a couple of small patches of disorganized
convection this morning.  An ASCAT-B overpass from several hours ago
showed that the circulation has become elongated from east to west,
and is less defined than it was yesterday.  The scatterometer data
also showed that the maximum winds are around 25 kt, and NOAA buoy
41041 has observed similar winds.  Based on these data, the initial
wind speed is lowered to 25 kt, which is also close to the latest
satellite intensity estimates.  The depression continues to battle
west-southwesterly shear of about 20 kt and a fairly stable air
mass. These conditions are expected to become even more hostile,
which should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low or
become a trough within the next day or two before it reaches the
Lesser Antilles. This scenario is supported by nearly all of the
models.

The center of Grace appears to be located a little to the south
of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is due
westward, or 270 degrees, at 15 kt. Grace, or its remnant, is
expected to continue moving westward at about the same speed until
it dissipates in a few days or less. The new NHC track forecast is a
little south of the previous one, based mainly on the more southward
initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 14.3N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N  49.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 14.9N  53.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.4N  56.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 15.9N  60.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi