000
WTNT42 KNHC 130851
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN
ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS
ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA.
GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 36.5N  67.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 40.5N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI