000
WTNT42 KNHC 122031
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013
 
GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND
VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. 
 
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN
THE NHC FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 34.4N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 36.3N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 40.5N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA