000
WTNT42 KNHC 200834
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAGUNA VERDE...VERACRUZ HARBOR AND
SACRIFICE ISLAND STATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND BARRY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ SHORTLY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING
SHOULD BE RAPID AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 270/4. 
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARRY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0600Z 19.6N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA