000
WTNT42 KNHC 192043
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND
NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON.  SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR
VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.
 
BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION  WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 19.6N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0600Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA