000
WTNT42 KNHC 191433
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY
METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 19.6N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 19.5N  95.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 19.5N  96.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1200Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA