000
WTNT42 KNHC 190838
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.  

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 19.3N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.4N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0600Z 19.2N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH