000
WTNT42 KNHC 180835
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED...
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH
OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS. 
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN
SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 17.0N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1800Z 17.5N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0600Z 18.1N  92.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1800Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  20/0600Z 18.6N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  21/0600Z 18.7N  96.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN