000
WTNT42 KNHC 180243
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT
ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW 
CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25
KT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS
INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  AS THE
FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
MEXICO.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 16.7N  88.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z 17.2N  90.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0000Z 17.8N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 18.2N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z 18.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.8N  96.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  22/0000Z 18.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA