000
WTNT42 KNHC 171446
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012
 
RAFAEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE
TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE REDUCED TO 65 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD....HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
RAFAEL IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN COMPLETE A
CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  GUIDANCE FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS HELPFUL FOR BOTH THE TRACK AND WIND
RADII FORECASTS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 37.5N  59.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 41.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  18/1200Z 44.8N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0000Z 48.0N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 54.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z 47.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 43.5N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN