000
WTNT42 KNHC 161445
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
 
DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A
FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.  WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON
WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH
PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
INITIAL WINDS.  

RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE
INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 28.6N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 31.7N  62.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 36.5N  59.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 41.5N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 45.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1200Z 44.0N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE