000
WTNT42 KNHC 101456
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
 
LESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE
SPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.
LESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. 
SINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS AROUND
THAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 37.0N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 41.4N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 48.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0000Z 55.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1200Z 60.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA