000
WTNT42 KNHC 081452
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LESLIE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE AND MOST OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND REPORTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55 KNOTS...AND THE PRESSURE HAS
RISEN TO
988 MB. SINCE LESLIE IS STILL FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF LESLIE...AND AS
SOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THESE WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS WILL INCREASE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHT...REMAINS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS AND
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 28.6N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 31.2N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 32.8N  61.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 34.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 40.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1200Z 47.0N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA