000
WTNT42 KNHC 102033
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED.  IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE ELONGATING...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CENTER IS
EVEN CLOSED ANYMORE.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EVIDENCE APPEARS TO BE MOUNTING THAT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOON...AND THE LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF
THE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD...
THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3.
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST...NOW WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 270/21 KT.  A FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.
 
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE
DEPRESSION WILL EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  THE VARIOUS
GOVERNMENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 13.7N  51.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.2N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 14.5N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 14.7N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN