000
WTNT42 KNHC 300839
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
 
BERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001
MB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND
OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DESPITE THE
INTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER.
 
DURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  BY 36-
48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A
COLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO
BECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE.  THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE
THROUGH 120 H.  A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN
ATLANTIC.  THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL
LOCATION AND MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A
POSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 33.1N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 38.6N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0600Z 39.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0600Z 41.0N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN