000
WTNT42 KNHC 292039
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
CENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY
THAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48
HOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 31.8N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 32.8N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA