000
WTNT42 KNHC 291431
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES.
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 31.5N  82.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 32.2N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1200Z 33.3N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/0000Z 34.7N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 40.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA