000
WTNT42 KNHC 282031
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT
IS MOVING OVER LAND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT
MUCH...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 48 HOURS. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BERYL WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN 96 HOURS AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE THEREAFTER.
 
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
325 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 30.8N  83.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 31.2N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 32.1N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 34.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 37.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1800Z 38.5N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA