000
WTNT42 KNHC 280846
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.
 
BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1800Z 31.9N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 32.8N  79.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 35.7N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0600Z 38.5N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z 43.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS