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WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 30.5N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 30.4N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  81.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/1800Z 30.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  01/0600Z 40.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS