000
WTNT42 KNHC 270241
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF
40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF
CONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A
LITTLE FASTER.  BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS
NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...AND
THEN WEAKEN IT AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BETWEEN 24-36 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL STALL AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
THE EASTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
48 H...BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN
DEFERENCE TO THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR BERYL IS BECOMING MORE MOIST...AND THE
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. 
THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF BERYL INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PROCESS. 
BERYL SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
LAND.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE NEW FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
MAINLY ON THE LGEM MODEL.

THE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 30.8N  77.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 30.4N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL
 36H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0000Z 30.7N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0000Z 35.0N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  01/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN