000
WTNT42 KNHC 262055
TCDAT2
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS
INTENSITY.
 
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/4. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BERYL INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERYL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN SHARPLY RECURVE. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT DISAGREE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS TAKE BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
INLAND BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH THE LANDFALL...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF IT THEREAFTER.
 
ALTHOUGH BERYL LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...DRY AIR AND THE OVERALL BROAD STRUCTURE OF ITS WIND FIELD
SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BERYL WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A
STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 31.5N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 30.9N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 30.4N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 30.4N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/1800Z 30.9N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 34.0N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/1800Z 38.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN