000
WTNT42 KNHC 082053
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD 
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED 
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER 
COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING 
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND 
UW-CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD 
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED 
BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 35.3N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 37.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/1800Z 40.5N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 44.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 48.5N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 56.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART