000
WTNT42 KNHC 300301
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED THIS
EVENING.  THERE ARE NO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING.  A TIMELY 2344 UTC ASCAT
PASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN AREA OF
30-35 KT WINDS.  WITH THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE
TRICKY.  IN THE SHORT TERM...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND
PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.  THIS FAVORS
SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.  BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  ONE WOULD EXPECT THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING AT TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES...GIVING A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/11.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES A
WEAKER SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.2N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.3N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 23.5N  47.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 24.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 24.8N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 25.5N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 25.5N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 25.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN