000 WTNT42 KNHC 290256 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011 PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.3N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 21.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 23.8N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN