000
WTNT42 KNHC 281434
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
PHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
MOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4
AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE
PART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  PHILIPPE IS STILL
STRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THEN INCREASE AFTER THAT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER
THAT TIME.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 16.4N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 17.3N  39.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 20.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 21.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 24.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1200Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY