000
WTNT42 KNHC 271433
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011
 
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40
KT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
BY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
WITH TIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  

BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 15.8N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 16.5N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 17.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 18.6N  38.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.7N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 24.5N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH