000
WTNT42 KNHC 081046
TCDAT2
 
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011
 
...CORRECTED FOR TIME 

NOAA BUOY 41048 HAS PROVIDED VERY VALUABLE DATA IN ESTIMATING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF KATIA.  AS THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
APPROACHED...THIS DATA BUOY REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 KT.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REDUCED TO 970 MB...ALSO BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS BUOY.
 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE
CYCLONE...OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY...FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD...350/12...AS IT MOVES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND TO THE EAST OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT.  A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 32.0N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 33.9N  70.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 36.6N  68.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 39.2N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 41.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 48.5N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 56.0N  19.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z 60.0N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH