000
WTNT42 KNHC 160836
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011
 
GERT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS CIRCULAR. IN ADDITION...THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GERT IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM LATER THIS MORNING
AND MOVES INTO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GERT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
WATERS NEAR 20C...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY IF THE
CURRENT TREND CONTINUES. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF GERT WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONT IN A LITTLE OVER 2 DAYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/19. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT ARE FORECAST AS GERT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 36.4N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 38.9N  56.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 42.2N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1800Z 45.4N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0600Z 48.5N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI