000
WTNT42 KNHC 160231
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH
HEIGHT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GERT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS...
SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED
BY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
THE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16.  GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER
LATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT. 
THD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 34.7N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 37.3N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 40.8N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 44.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0000Z 46.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH