000
WTNT42 KNHC 212037
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

THE CENTER OF BRET REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED AN
AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS AND
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE
SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE
THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
35-40 KT...AND THIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE
CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BRET WEAKENING TO A TROUGH
IN 48 HR OR LESS...AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 060/9.  OTHER
THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST REASONING.  BRET SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 34.2N  69.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 35.5N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 37.3N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 39.0N  59.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN