000
WTNT42 KNHC 211439
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011

WHILE BRET CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH
OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING
ORGANIZATION AS IT REMAINS AFFECTED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...
TROPICAL-STORM WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT RECENTLY OBSERVED AT
BUOY 41048.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 35 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  BRET SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THIS COMBINATION IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 33.8N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 36.8N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 38.6N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN