000
WTNT42 KNHC 202035
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BRET HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45
KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005
MB ON BOTH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS AND DATA FROM
A 1521 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40
KT.  WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  BRET IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48
HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER JOGGED TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...050/7.  BRET REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 31.9N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 32.7N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 34.3N  70.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 35.9N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 37.8N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN