000
WTNT42 KNHC 200849
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011
 
ALTHOUGH BRET IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
THIS MORNING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT WEAKENED YET.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
...SFMR WINDS...AND DROPSONDE DATA ALL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO
THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER
AND CALLS FOR BRET TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 3...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT BRET HAS TURNED A BIT TO
THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 050/06.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
AIRCRAFT AND ALTIMETER DATA...RESPECTIVELY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 31.1N  74.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 31.9N  73.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 33.2N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 34.6N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 36.2N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200849
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011
 
ALTHOUGH BRET IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
THIS MORNING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT WEAKENED YET.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
...SFMR WINDS...AND DROPSONDE DATA ALL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO
THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER
AND CALLS FOR BRET TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 3...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT BRET HAS TURNED A BIT TO
THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 050/06.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
AIRCRAFT AND ALTIMETER DATA...RESPECTIVELY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 31.1N  74.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 31.9N  73.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 33.2N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 34.6N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 36.2N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI