000
WTNT42 KNHC 191458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
 
JULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD
WEAKEN SOON.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
PATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
CENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  JULIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THE
ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 34.2N  50.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 34.9N  48.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 35.6N  46.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 36.2N  44.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 37.5N  42.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG