000
WTNT42 KNHC 182031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
JULIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED EVEN THOUGH REPEATED
BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE...RECENT PRESSURE DATA FROM A NUMBER
OF DRIFTING BUOYS NEAR JULIA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA
HAS LIKELY RETAINED ITS VIGOR.  BASED UPON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.5 AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INTENSITY OF JULIA IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.  SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE IGOR INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
JULIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  JULIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF JULIA IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE
IGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
THE TRACK OF JULIA CONTINUES BENDING TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/17.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UKMET SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTER AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IT CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE
UKMET.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 30.6N  51.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 32.6N  52.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 36.4N  49.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  47.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN