000
WTNT42 KNHC 152044
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010
 
THE EYE OF JULIA HAS BEEN APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  A 1912 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EYE...DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  JULIA HAS
LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
110 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JULIA
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS THE JULIA VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  DURING THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE.  BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE STEERED IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN JULIA AND
THE AZORES ISLANDS.  THEREAFTER...JULIA SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND HURRICANE IGOR TO THE WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.2N  33.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.6N  35.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 22.6N  38.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 24.3N  42.4W    95 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  45.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  49.6W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 34.0N  49.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 36.0N  45.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN