000
WTNT42 KNHC 151454
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JULIA WHEN THE HURRICANE REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. THIS
STRENGTHENING APPPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS MORNING...AS
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR COMBINED WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA.  THIS LEVELING OF ITS
INTENSITY ALSO SHOWS UP WITH THE T NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND
TAFB...WHICH HOVER AND DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND/BETWEEN 5 AND 6.
HOWEVER JULIA MAINTAINS A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST/CORE AND
CLEAR EYE STRUCTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT... THUS
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KTS. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MARGINAL AND COOLER SST VALUES.  

THE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH BUT THERE REMAINS RATHER
LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HRS...JULIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND 15 KTS OR GREATER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HRS...JULIA FORWARD MOTION SLOWS AS A
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND
WHICH KEEPS THE STORM FROM ACCELERATING INTO THE MAIN BAND OF THE
WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINED A TIGHT
CORRELATION TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.2N  32.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N  34.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.3N  37.5W   115 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.9N  41.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N  44.2W    95 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 27.5N  49.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 31.5N  50.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  47.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MUSHER