000
WTNT42 KNHC 150237
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
 
JULIA HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE...AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THAT FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
90 KT.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOW A LITTLE
ELONGATED AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT
MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE.  AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED
ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED AT
295/8.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY...BUT IT
SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AS IT GETS
STEERED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A BLOCKING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BY DAY 4...JULIA WILL HAVE REACHED THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE
EAST OF IGOR...AND IT SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST THEN TO THE
NORTH BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 4 BUT THEN WIDENS ON DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CONSENSUS TVCN ON DAY 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.7N  30.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W    95 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG