000
WTNT42 KNHC 041449
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 44.3N  64.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 48.0N  60.7W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA