000
WTNT42 KNHC 040856
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS EARL HAS DEVELOPED A RING OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL. BASED ON
THE LAST RECON DATA...LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONINGS.
EARL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER
WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LANDMASSES.
HOWEVER...EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSES NORTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON
COORDINATION WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 41.7N  67.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 45.4N  63.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 50.1N  58.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 54.0N  55.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 56.0N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 56.5N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART